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塔里木河流域冰川变化、趋势及对水资源变化的影响研究 >
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http://hdl.handle.net/2239/1836
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| Title: | 0℃层高度与夏季阿克苏河洪水的关系 |
| Authors: | Mao, Weiyi(毛炜峄)
Wu, Jun(吴钧)
Chen, Chunyan(陈春艳) |
| Keywords: | 日流量(daily discharge)
0℃层高度(0 ℃ level height)
洪水预报(flood forecast)
阿克苏河(Aksu River)
新疆(Xinjiang) |
| Issue Date: | Dec-2004 |
| Publisher: | 《冰川冻土》2004，（6）：697-704. |
| Abstract: | [中文摘要]：应用阿克苏河两条支流的出山口水文站日流量资料,以及流域及其周边3个探空站的0℃层高度资料,分析了1999年夏季阿克苏河流域特大洪水期间0℃层高度与日流量的关系.阿克苏等3站的0℃层高度逐日变化与阿克苏河两条支流逐日流量之间有显著的相关关系.托什干河日流量与超前2～3d、持续3～4d的0℃层高度累积值之间的相关系数最大;库玛拉克河日流量则与超前3～4d、持续4～5d的0℃层高度累积值之间的关系最为密切.阿克苏河流域东部库车站的0℃层高度与托什干河日流量之间的关系最密切;中部的阿克苏站、西部的喀什站的0℃层高度与库玛拉克河日流量之间的关系更加显著.1999年特大洪水中,阿克苏河日流量与0℃层高度之间呈指数函数关系.以0℃层高度为因子,建立了阿克苏河两条支流4个日流量序列的非线性多元回归模型.
[英文摘要]：Using the data of daily discharge from Shaliguilanke and Shehel Hydrological Gauges of Aksu River and three 0℃ level height data from Aksu, Kuqa and Kashgar Sounding Stations on southern slope of Tianshan Mountains, a relation of 0℃ level height and daily discharge in extreme flooding period of Aksu River, Tarim basin during the summer of 1999 are analyzed. The result shows that daily 0℃ level height data have good correlation with daily discharge of Aksu River, and can be expressed as an exponent function of daily 0 ℃ level height and daily discharge in 1999 extreme flood The four non-lineal multi-regression forecast models are built from the a relation of 0℃ level height and daily discharge. The statistics of forecast eligibility of excess alertness and excess safety daily discharges and daily peak discharges in different peak discharge stages in Aksu River show good result. The 0 ℃ level height can be an important factor for forecasting flooding in Aksu River where extending glacier and snow covers have be in headwater region. |
| URI: | http://seekspace.resip.ac.cn/handle/2239/1836 |
| Appears in Collections: | 科学论文
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| 0℃层高度与夏季阿克苏河洪水的关系.pdf | | 445Kb | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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